Thursday, October 6, 2011

Worst Case Scenario

A few days ago I was playing in the 5-10 at Capitol Casino, which has become my main game. It was just like any other Monday at a casino. In the game was a player who I had heard was pretty wild and had lots of money, so needless to say I was excited. These types of players can spew money like nobody's business if you can open them up a bit. However, they also can be pretty dangerous at times as well. I will post the first hand that I feel is relevant to the main hand.

Villain has been straddling to 4bb every opportunity, making blind raises PF a lot, 3-betting a bit. His VPIP is probably >80%. I open to 35 in MP with AcTc, villain calls on the button, blinds fold. Effective stacks are 1200$ish.

Flop is Td7c2h. I c-bet 45 into 80ish. My plan vs. a raise was to call, and probably call down on most turns and rivers. Villain calls pretty quickly. Turn is a 4s or some other blank, and I check, looking to induce. Villain bets 120 into 170, I call in about 5 seconds. River is Jd, I check, and villain bets 300 quickly and forcefully. I tank for about 30 seconds and call. Villain shows Q9o and I scoop the pot.

My observations:

Villain can float
Villain can bet large sizes as a bluff
Villain is not afraid to follow through when shown weakness
Possibly quick bet correlates with bluffs

Ok, onto the main hand. UTG ($700) limps, Hero in MP ($2200) limps with QdQc. Villain is in BB, and has been squeezing a ton (50%+) when limped pots get to him. Also, if another player raises, I expect villain to 3-bet or flat nearly 100%, giving me a super sick limp raise spot. CO ($1000) makes it 45, BB ($2100) calls, UTG calls, and I make it 120 more. Looking back at this sizing, I think it is too small. I am giving villains 3-1 preflop, which is just a little too good, esp given villain and my effective stacks. A better size would be a raise to 200 more preflop, giving villain just over 2-1, and giving me a more advantageous stack to pot ratio.

CO disgustedly folds, BB calls without much thought, UTG folds as well. I think BB's calling range in this spot is literally 70-80% of all hands, excluding the top 5-10%. Flop is 5s5c7s. This is not a flop I expect to hit villains range particularly hard. Given how wide his range is preflop, he will have air the vast majority of the time on this flop. Villain checks to me and I bet 200 into 400. I think this sizing is ok. It leaves plenty of room for villain to c/r bluff, gets value from worse and sets me up for 3 streets of value, and is consistent with my bluff sizing.

Villain c/r to 500. I think his range for c/r here will be pretty polarized to 5x+, and bluffs with and without equity. I think most of his bluffs will likely have some sort of equity, whether that be a FD, gutter, OESD, or just 2 overs with a BDFD. He will occasionally have a pure bluff like JT sometimes as well. I think for about 10 seconds and call. I feel my hand is pretty face up once I call here, as JJ+ or possibly AK sometimes. 3-betting flop COULD be ok if I thought he could really spazz out and level himself. However, I find it much more likely that he will barrel off when I flat than spazz 4b jam the flop with a gutter or something.

Turn is the 8s. This is a bad turn for a lot of reasons. First of all, all of his range has improved to a better hand or picked up equity. Flushes have hit, 2 of the gutters have hit, other straight draws have picked up a pair and will probably stop bluffing, and his BDFD's have picked up 9 outs. Villain bets 600 into 1150 or so, with about 800 behind. Given that most of his flop c/r range has some sort of equity, I think villains bluffing frequency on this turn will be pretty low. Also, because my hand is face up, villain can value bet pretty thin on river. When he is bluffing, he will almost always fire the river, because my range is pretty capped in this spot, and his isn't. Given that we will always be facing a river bet, if we do call turn, it is a spot where we must call almost any river. However, I think the correct play is to fold the turn as shitty as it sounds. This is the nut worst card for us, and he just isn't bluffing enough. I hem and haw and call turn in about 20 seconds.
River is the 9c. This river is also pretty bad, though I don't expect it to hit him too often. Some of his random airball bluffs have gotten there. Villain jams for 800. At this point, I was not too excited at all about the situation. I am getting around 3-1, so I need about 25% equity to call. However, the only hand I can beat is a total random airball bluff. His value range is very wide because my hand is faceup as an overpair. Looking back, this is an easy fold, even given history. He just is not bluffing enough here, purely because this board is so good for his range. I ended up calling the river. Villain shows 5d3d. At the time I wasn't sure what I thought about it, now I realize it was quite a poor call.

Now that we've found a mistake, the next step is to go over WHY I made this mistake. At several points I misidentified ranges, and focused too much on one portion of his range (pure bluffs). The reason I made this mistake was because I was over-adjusting to my agro opponent. I let his LAGgyness get into my head, and at some point I told myself "this guy is insane, I'm not ever folding anything to him". Because of this, I became overcommitted to my hand, and made mistakes. The solution to this problem is simple but difficult to implement all the time. I must never categorize an opponent so strongly that I am not open to new pieces of information. Just because someone is insane in one situation, doesn't mean they always are.

This was pretty much the worse case scenario that could have happened in this game. However, now that it has happened, it doesn't feel so bad. If I work hard and focus, I will do better next time. Hope you guys enjoy this,


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