So I'm playing live 2-5 today at my local cardroom (capitol casino). I found this hand that just transpired interesting.
Table has just started, maybe 5th hand at the table. I'm in the bb with 9hTc. Young guy who looks reggish opens to 15 in co with 500$ effective, folds to me and I flat. I realize this is sort of loose, but I think its ok because we are in an information vacuum, and hence we will be able to get away with more bluff postlop in a reg on reg situation.
Flop comes 2s4sks, and I lead for 15. I do this for a few reasons, mainly because I think villain will play very straightforwardly vs this. My bet needs to work 33% of the time, and I think he will fold that often for sure with his random no pair no draw hands. If he does call, his range will likely be unable to withstand multiple barrels. I expect him to raise most of his strong hands on the flop. So my flop lead is effectively splitting my opponents range. Villain calls in about 10 seconds.
The turn is the 3c, and I lead again for 40. In retrospect, I think this turn barrel is bad in a vacuum, as he will be peeling it very wide because this turn improves the absolute equity of his range. However a turn barrel COULD be good couple with frequent river barrels on the right cards, given that the range he gets to river with will be pretty wide. Villain calls again in about ten seconds.River is the Ac. This is a pretty meh card overall. A lot of his range (AsX) will have hit this river, along with occasional the occasional 5x hand. However, a lot of his range will not like this river. Mid pocket pairs, that almost certainly peel flop and turn, will fold this river. Also, a lot of his random Broadway+fd will have to fold this river as well. Thus, I think a bet is appropriate, but sizing is pretty important.
The range we are attempting to fold out has a nearly inelastic folding frequency, meaning he will fold those hand almost regardless of bet sizing. Therefore, we should bet the smallest size possible that won't effect his frequency. I chose to bet 55 into a pot of 140. My bet will need to work about 28% of the time to be +EV, and I think it def works more often then that. It should also be noted that my bet sizing is consistent with how most live players perceive value bets with the top and middle of my range. The only concern with this sizing is that it CAN induce bluffs, however I think this will happen with a pretty low frequency.
Villain ended up folding river after toying with a raise. Turns out you can still be creative in live poker!